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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still